Climate-Linked Evolution and Genetics in a Warming Arctic

Bozeman, Montana – March 16, 2026 – Today, researchers from leading institutions, including the University of Manitoba, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Polar Bears International, the Norwegian Polar Institute, and San Diego Zoo Wildlife Alliance, have published “Climate-Linked Evolution and Genetics in a Warming Arctic” in the journal ​​Ecological Monographs. The first-ever synthesis of polar bear evolutionary research arrives at a critical moment: as the Arctic changes rapidly, effective conservation increasingly requires integrating genetics and evolutionary data into management decisions.

“We analyzed evolutionary change and genetic patterns of polar bears, distilling over fifty studies into practical tools for governments, policymakers, and conservationalists,” says Dr. Ruth Rivkin, lead author and NSERC Postdoctoral Fellow at the University of Manitoba and Polar Bears International, adding, “We also identified how this research can be further developed with Indigenous communities to ensure that these decisions are effective and equitable in the long-term.”

Key Takeaways:

• Each of the 20 polar bear populations across the Arctic is responding differently to climate change. Some are declining rapidly, while others are currently stable or benefiting from factors including high biodiversity, abundant prey, and access to glacial ice that supplements dwindling sea ice.

• Polar bears are becoming smaller due to climate change, according to the reviewed literature. This is a form of maladaptation, meaning it doesn’t benefit the bears: smaller bears are more vulnerable than bigger bears. They typically can’t fast as long, and they have smaller cubs with lower survival rates.  

• Genetic diversity is declining in many polar bear populations, as gene flow decreases between subpopulations. Reduced genetic diversity and increased inbreeding rates mean less adaptive capacity and greater vulnerability to climate change.

• Polar bears are not evolutionarily adapting to climate change, according to existing evidence. While some individual bears show behavioral plasticity – such as adopting new hunting strategies – these responses are not reflected in population-level genetic or evolutionary data. 

• Genetic tools revolutionize polar bear research and management. Advances such as epigenetic aging clocks, which measure predictable DNA changes across a lifespan, and whole-genome sequencing enable less-invasive, more cost-effective polar bear research in collaboration with Northern communities.

• Ecosystem connectivity is crucial for polar bear survival. As Arctic shipping increases, this paper details how managers should carefully plan shipping lanes to avoid disrupting polar bear movement corridors. Hudson Bay, in particular, is an essential mixing bowl for polar bear genes from multiple subpopulations; increased shipping could reduce genetic mixing, in turn decreasing polar bears’ genetic resilience.

Key Recommendations:

• Adopt a genetic management plan for polar bears. The framework detailed in this paper provides a model for governments and management bodies to proactively integrate genetic and evolutionary data into conservation decisions as the Arctic rapidly industrializes, and to align polar bear management with the UN Convention on Biological Diversity’s Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.

• Design marine reserves and shipping lanes to protect ecosystem connectivity. Marine Protected Areas and National Marine Conservation Areas should preserve movement corridors that enable genetic exchange between subpopulations.

• Advance ongoing scientific research and long-term datasets to understand and manage the dynamic, rapidly changing Arctic.

• Include Indigenous and Local Knowledge in Arctic research and management. This paper identifies pathways for expanding the leadership of local communities in scientific monitoring and co-management, and recommends that any genetic management plan be co-developed with Indigenous partners.

“Understanding the adaptive potential of polar bears in a warming climate is critical for the long-term conservation of the species,” notes Dr. Evan Richardson, co-author and Polar Bear Research Scientist, Environment and Climate Change Canada. “This work has highlighted the value of long-term monitoring programs in investigating evolutionary processes that influence the viability of polar bear populations and the need for future research to understand potential mechanisms of adaptation. Assessing the adaptive potential of polar bears at the southern limit of their range.”

Ecosystem Connectivity is Crucial to Conservation: Gene flow is the movement of genetic material between subpopulations when bears from different areas mix and breed, and is one of the most important buffers against the effects of climate change. It bolsters genetic diversity, which in turn preserves the evolutionary potential of the population. As sea ice declines and shipping traffic increases through Arctic waters, the corridors that enable this movement are at increasing risk, and thus, preserving habitat connectivity is essential.

“According to our research, one of the most clear-cut ways to preserve polar bears in a warming Arctic is to maintain ecosystem connectivity through habitat preservation. Through marine reserves, strategic shipping lane planning, and other measures, we can ensure that polar bears and other Arctic species can continue to disperse and connect with other populations, which is necessary for preserving genetic diversity and long-term species resilience,” says Dr. Ruth Rivkin, lead author and NSERC Postdoctoral Fellow at the University of Manitoba and Polar Bears International.

Broader Lessons for Adaptive Management amid Climate Change: The Arctic is the fastest-warming region on earth, making it a keystone ecosystem where researchers can study climate-driven changes and predict what might happen elsewhere as temperatures rise. Polar bears are an ideal case study because they’re a large, long-lived mammal, with over 50 years of monitoring data about how they have been coping with warming conditions in the Arctic. The management frameworks developed in this paper are adaptable to other species facing comparable pressures, offering a potential model for conservation genetics planning across the Arctic and beyond.

“At a time of increasing pressure on research and monitoring efforts, due to shifts in funding from governments alongside changes in the natural environment, the polar bear researchers have been challenged to maintain and expand long term monitoring across the Arctic,” notes Geoff York, co-author and Vice President of Science and Policy at Polar Bears International, continuing, “Genetic tools help advance science in a way that's scalable and sustainable, allowing for less-invasive research for the bears and less risk for the people doing the work.”

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About Polar Bears International

Polar Bears International (PBI) is the only nonprofit organization in the world dedicated solely to protecting the future of polar bears and the Arctic sea ice they depend on. Recognized as a global leader in the field, PBI leverages a team of leading scientists and conservationists to advance crucial research and coexistence strategies. Registered in Canada and the United States but working across the Arctic, the organization aims to inspire people worldwide by highlighting the urgent threats to the Arctic and the direct connection between this remote region and our global climate. As a top-rated charity and 1% for the Planet member, PBI’s efforts are amplified across more than 3,000 media outlets annually, driving change for polar bears and the Arctic ecosystem. For more information, visit www.polarbearsinternational.org.

Polar Bears International media contacts:
Annie Edwards: annie@fabricmedia.net, +44 07307 139782
Melissa Hourigan: melissa@fabricmedia.net, +1 720 988 3856

About San Diego Zoo Wildlife Alliance   

San Diego Zoo Wildlife Alliance, a nonprofit conservation leader, inspires passion for nature and collaboration for a healthier world. The Alliance supports innovative conservation science through global partnerships and groundbreaking efforts at the world-famous San Diego Zoo and San Diego Zoo Safari Park, both leading zoological institutions and accredited botanical gardens. Through wildlife care expertise, cutting-edge science and continued collaboration, more than 44 endangered species have been reintroduced to native habitats. The Alliance reaches over 1 billion people annually through its two conservation parks and media channels in 170 countries, including San Diego Zoo Wildlife Explorers television, available in children’s hospitals across 14 countries. Wildlife Allies — members, donors and guests — make success possible. 

San Diego Zoo Wildlife Alliance media contacts:
Claire Sweeney: csweeney@sdzwa.org, 206-948-1609
Public Relations: publicrelations@sdzwa.org, 619-685-3291    

About University of Manitoba
The University of Manitoba (UM) is recognized as Western Canada's first university. It is part of the U15, ranking among Canada’s top research-intensive universities and provides exceptional undergraduate and graduate liberal arts, science and professional programs of study. UM campuses and research spaces are located on the original lands of Anishinaabeg, Ininiwak, Anisininewuk, Dakota Oyate, Dene and Inuit, and on the National Homeland of the Red River Métis.  UM’s collaboration with Indigenous communities is grounded in respect and reciprocity. For more information, please visit umanitoba.ca.

University of Manitoba media contact:
Swarnalata Bhattacharjee: mediarelations@umanitoba.ca , 204-914-5550

About The Norwegian Polar Institute 

The Norwegian Polar Institute is a directorate under the Ministry of the Climate and Environment. The Institute’s activities are focused on environmental management needs in the polar regions. We produce scientific knowledge, conduct mapping and provide professional and strategic advice to the Norwegian authorities. We are present in the Arctic and the Antarctic, operate research stations, carry out expeditions and are the owners of the research vessel Kronprins Haakon. The institute is the environmental authority for Bouvetøya and for Norwegian activity in Antarctica.

Norwegian Polar Institute media contact:
Stig Mathisen: mathisen@npolar.no, +47 99 16 61 61   

About Environment and Climate Change Canada 

Environment and Climate Change Canada is the Government of Canada’s lead department for a wide range of environmental issues, including taking action on clean growth and climate change. The Department is also engaged in activities aimed at preventing and managing pollution, conserving nature, and predicting weather and environmental conditions.

Environment and Climate Change Canada media contacts:
Media Relations
819-938-3338 or 1-844-836-7799 (toll-free)
media@ec.gc.ca