The Polar Population Project
Dr. Steven C. Amstrup, a polar bear scientist from Alaska and a member of PBI's Advisory Council, announced a major new PBI initiative that offers hope for conserving polar bears. @copy;2006 R. & C. Buchanan. Click the image to enlarge.
Given the sense of urgency related to Arctic climate change and how it affects polar bears, PBI has launched a major new initiative called the Polar Population Project, or Tri-P, based on the three "Ps" in its name. The broad-based initiative was developed after consulting with the scientists on our Advisory Council. These experts worked as a team to define the most critical research needs in order to ensure the long-term survival of the bears.
"Everyone understood the importance of working together," says PBI's President, Robert Buchanan. "We had some ground-breaking discussions and came away with a solid plan."
A Warming Arctic
Dr. Steven C. Amstrup, a polar bear scientist from Alaska who serves on PBI's Advisory Council, announced the launch of the Tri-P at a PBI press conference held at the San Diego Zoo. He began by summarizing the mounting evidence that the Arctic is undergoing a rapid warming trend. He stated that the latest predictions from the National Center for Atmospheric Research suggest that the polar basin could be largely ice-free in 40 years, raising concerns about the long-term survival of the bears.
Amstrup noted that changes in ice coverage directly affect polar bear populations, as the bears use ice as a platform for catching seals. He pointed out that the two populations that scientists know the most about�Western Hudson Bay and the Southern Beaufort Sea�are showing signs of stress, apparently in response to shrinking sea ice coverage.
"Declining survival rates, associated with earlier sea ice break-up in the spring, has been confirmed in Western Hudson Bay," he said. "That population has dropped from over 1,100 bears in 1987 to 935 in 2004."
The Southern Beaufort Sea population, which spans northern Alaska and western Canada, is also showing signs of stress, the scientist reported. "We have observed declining physical stature in cubs and adult males, and declining survival and recruitment rates," he said. [See related story, page four.]
Action Needed
Despite this sobering news, Amstrup emphasized that hope remains. "Polar bears have survived at least one warm period in the past, " he said, "and we know that natural variation lends some uncertainty to predications. We also know that, with resolve, we can manage the extent to which humans are contributing to predicted climate change.
"Therefore," he told the audience, "we are gathered here to discuss priority initiatives for the polar bear's future."
Amstrup explained that in order to help the bears, it is critical to have accurate information on what is happening. At present, much of what we know about polar bears comes from long-term data collected on two of the19 polar bear populations (Western Hudson Bay and the Southern Beaufort Sea). Knowledge of the other 17 populations is mixed, and polar bear specialists agree that information on many of them is urgently needed so that scientists can understand exactly what is happening to the bears worldwide.
New Research Methods
Robert Buchanan, PBI's president, said that the prime reason that only two of the populations have been extensively studied is that current census methods are difficult and expensive. The good news is that aerial surveys, which employ what are called distance sampling methods, show great promise. The first step in the Tri-P initiative, then, is for Dr. Nick Lunn and his colleagues to test the method on the Western Hudson Bay bears next fall. Because we know so much about the Western Hudson Bay population, applying these methods there will allow them to be tested and calibrated. Once the method has been calibrated, aerial surveys will provide scientists with a fast and relatively inexpensive way of determining the status of at least five other polar bear populations, all of which spend their summers on land.
The remaining populations, which summer on the sea ice, pose a different problem. Therefore, an equally important component of the Tri-P Initiative is to develop methods of surveying these bears. "We need to develop tactical research and monitoring methods that can help us understand the status of regions like northern Canada and the Chukchi Sea of Alaska, where polar bears usually don't spend much time on land," Amstrup said. These methods will probably vary slightly from population to population due to differing conditions.
The third and equally important final component of the Tri-P, Amstrup noted, is to continue the long-term studies in Western Hudson Bay and the Southern Beaufort Sea. Only by continuing those long-term data sets will we have the information necessary to document continuing responses to ongoing climate and sea ice changes.
Hope for the Bears
Simply put, the Tri-P is an umbrella project that will allow PBI to focus its research efforts on the most urgently needed data. "Understanding exactly what is happening with polar bears and the sea ice is the first step toward ensuring that the bears are around for future generations," Buchanan said. "PBI's approach has always been, 'A problem well-defined is a problem half solved.'"
During earlier warming trends, said Buchanan, polar bears probably survived in small pockets. "It's thought that small groups held on in micro-climates with thicker ice," he explained.
"Once we understand the overall movement patterns of the bears and where they're the healthiest," he added, "we'll be able to create sanctuaries for them. But we need solid baseline data in order to do so."
So far, major funding for the Tri-P has come from the following Platinum Sponsors: the Burns Foundation, Lowepro, the Manitoba Provincial Goverment, Power Corp. of Canada, and the San Diego Zoo. Winnipeg's Partners in the Park provided vitally important logistical coordination. Member donations will help support the project as well.
"Everyone understood the importance of working together," says PBI's President, Robert Buchanan. "We had some ground-breaking discussions and came away with a solid plan."
A Warming Arctic
Dr. Steven C. Amstrup, a polar bear scientist from Alaska who serves on PBI's Advisory Council, announced the launch of the Tri-P at a PBI press conference held at the San Diego Zoo. He began by summarizing the mounting evidence that the Arctic is undergoing a rapid warming trend. He stated that the latest predictions from the National Center for Atmospheric Research suggest that the polar basin could be largely ice-free in 40 years, raising concerns about the long-term survival of the bears.
Amstrup noted that changes in ice coverage directly affect polar bear populations, as the bears use ice as a platform for catching seals. He pointed out that the two populations that scientists know the most about�Western Hudson Bay and the Southern Beaufort Sea�are showing signs of stress, apparently in response to shrinking sea ice coverage.
"Declining survival rates, associated with earlier sea ice break-up in the spring, has been confirmed in Western Hudson Bay," he said. "That population has dropped from over 1,100 bears in 1987 to 935 in 2004."
The Southern Beaufort Sea population, which spans northern Alaska and western Canada, is also showing signs of stress, the scientist reported. "We have observed declining physical stature in cubs and adult males, and declining survival and recruitment rates," he said. [See related story, page four.]
Action Needed
Despite this sobering news, Amstrup emphasized that hope remains. "Polar bears have survived at least one warm period in the past, " he said, "and we know that natural variation lends some uncertainty to predications. We also know that, with resolve, we can manage the extent to which humans are contributing to predicted climate change.
"Therefore," he told the audience, "we are gathered here to discuss priority initiatives for the polar bear's future."
Amstrup explained that in order to help the bears, it is critical to have accurate information on what is happening. At present, much of what we know about polar bears comes from long-term data collected on two of the19 polar bear populations (Western Hudson Bay and the Southern Beaufort Sea). Knowledge of the other 17 populations is mixed, and polar bear specialists agree that information on many of them is urgently needed so that scientists can understand exactly what is happening to the bears worldwide.
New Research Methods
Robert Buchanan, PBI's president, said that the prime reason that only two of the populations have been extensively studied is that current census methods are difficult and expensive. The good news is that aerial surveys, which employ what are called distance sampling methods, show great promise. The first step in the Tri-P initiative, then, is for Dr. Nick Lunn and his colleagues to test the method on the Western Hudson Bay bears next fall. Because we know so much about the Western Hudson Bay population, applying these methods there will allow them to be tested and calibrated. Once the method has been calibrated, aerial surveys will provide scientists with a fast and relatively inexpensive way of determining the status of at least five other polar bear populations, all of which spend their summers on land.
The remaining populations, which summer on the sea ice, pose a different problem. Therefore, an equally important component of the Tri-P Initiative is to develop methods of surveying these bears. "We need to develop tactical research and monitoring methods that can help us understand the status of regions like northern Canada and the Chukchi Sea of Alaska, where polar bears usually don't spend much time on land," Amstrup said. These methods will probably vary slightly from population to population due to differing conditions.
The third and equally important final component of the Tri-P, Amstrup noted, is to continue the long-term studies in Western Hudson Bay and the Southern Beaufort Sea. Only by continuing those long-term data sets will we have the information necessary to document continuing responses to ongoing climate and sea ice changes.
Hope for the Bears
Simply put, the Tri-P is an umbrella project that will allow PBI to focus its research efforts on the most urgently needed data. "Understanding exactly what is happening with polar bears and the sea ice is the first step toward ensuring that the bears are around for future generations," Buchanan said. "PBI's approach has always been, 'A problem well-defined is a problem half solved.'"
During earlier warming trends, said Buchanan, polar bears probably survived in small pockets. "It's thought that small groups held on in micro-climates with thicker ice," he explained.
"Once we understand the overall movement patterns of the bears and where they're the healthiest," he added, "we'll be able to create sanctuaries for them. But we need solid baseline data in order to do so."
So far, major funding for the Tri-P has come from the following Platinum Sponsors: the Burns Foundation, Lowepro, the Manitoba Provincial Goverment, Power Corp. of Canada, and the San Diego Zoo. Winnipeg's Partners in the Park provided vitally important logistical coordination. Member donations will help support the project as well.
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