The Truth About Polar Bear Numbers
Scientists have only rough estimates for many of the 19 polar bear populations because it is both difficult and expensive to census the bears in many parts of the Arctic. That said, they use a working figure of 20,000 to 25,000 bears worldwide.
In the early '60s, the number of bears worldwide plummeted to a rough estimate of 12,000 bears due to severe over-hunting. In 1973, the five polar bear nations agreed to ban hunting except by Natives. Polar bear numbers rebounded in the early '80s to about 25,000 bears.
Although polar bears were able to recover from overhunting, they now face a much more greater threat: the loss of their habitat due to a dramatic warming trend in the Arctic. Last summer, the melt-off in the Arctic was equal to the size of Alaska, Texas, and the state of Washington combined. The loss of Arctic sea ice has resulted in a shorter hunting season for the bears, which has led to a documented decline in two well-studied populations, Western Hudson Bay and the Southern Beaufort Sea.
Both are considered representative. The Western Hudson Bay population has dropped by 22% since 1987. The Southern Beaufort Sea bears are showing the same signs of stress the Western Hudson Bay bears did before they crashed: smaller skull sizes, fewer cubs, etc.
Some members of the press take advantage of the complexity by stating that "polar bears are not in trouble—their numbers have doubled since the 1960s." That's a disingenuous statement, of course. There are twice as many bears now, true, but that's because they were severely over-hunted before and when the hunting stopped, they rebounded. But now they are starting to decline and we have two representative populations that illustrate this.
At the most recent meeting of the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group (Seattle, 2005), scientists reclassified the polar bear as a vulnerable species on the IUCN's Red List of Endangered Species. They reported that of the 19 subpopulations of polar bears, five are declining, five are stable, two are increasing, and seven have insufficient data on which to base a decision. The declining populations are the most southerly. The drop is expected to continue northward.
U.S. Interior Secretary Dirk Kempthorne stated that "The polar bear is likely to become an endangered species within the foreseeable future throughout all of its range" in announcing the decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species.
He also addressed the increase in the polar bear's population:
"Although the population of bears has grown from a low of about 12,000 in the late 1960's to approximately 25,000 today, our scientists advise me that computer modeling projects a significant population decline by the year 2050. This, in my judgment, makes the polar bear a threatened species — one likely to become in danger of extinction in the foreseeable future."
To provide scientists with the information they need to understand what is happening with all polar bear populations, Polar Bears International has funded the Polar Population Project, which will provide scientists with data on each of the 19 populations.
In the early '60s, the number of bears worldwide plummeted to a rough estimate of 12,000 bears due to severe over-hunting. In 1973, the five polar bear nations agreed to ban hunting except by Natives. Polar bear numbers rebounded in the early '80s to about 25,000 bears.
Although polar bears were able to recover from overhunting, they now face a much more greater threat: the loss of their habitat due to a dramatic warming trend in the Arctic. Last summer, the melt-off in the Arctic was equal to the size of Alaska, Texas, and the state of Washington combined. The loss of Arctic sea ice has resulted in a shorter hunting season for the bears, which has led to a documented decline in two well-studied populations, Western Hudson Bay and the Southern Beaufort Sea.
Both are considered representative. The Western Hudson Bay population has dropped by 22% since 1987. The Southern Beaufort Sea bears are showing the same signs of stress the Western Hudson Bay bears did before they crashed: smaller skull sizes, fewer cubs, etc.
Some members of the press take advantage of the complexity by stating that "polar bears are not in trouble—their numbers have doubled since the 1960s." That's a disingenuous statement, of course. There are twice as many bears now, true, but that's because they were severely over-hunted before and when the hunting stopped, they rebounded. But now they are starting to decline and we have two representative populations that illustrate this.
At the most recent meeting of the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group (Seattle, 2005), scientists reclassified the polar bear as a vulnerable species on the IUCN's Red List of Endangered Species. They reported that of the 19 subpopulations of polar bears, five are declining, five are stable, two are increasing, and seven have insufficient data on which to base a decision. The declining populations are the most southerly. The drop is expected to continue northward.
U.S. Interior Secretary Dirk Kempthorne stated that "The polar bear is likely to become an endangered species within the foreseeable future throughout all of its range" in announcing the decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species.
He also addressed the increase in the polar bear's population:
"Although the population of bears has grown from a low of about 12,000 in the late 1960's to approximately 25,000 today, our scientists advise me that computer modeling projects a significant population decline by the year 2050. This, in my judgment, makes the polar bear a threatened species — one likely to become in danger of extinction in the foreseeable future."
To provide scientists with the information they need to understand what is happening with all polar bear populations, Polar Bears International has funded the Polar Population Project, which will provide scientists with data on each of the 19 populations.
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